Experts in Uncertainty
Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science
Series: Environmental Ethics and Science Policy Series;
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101 521 Ft
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Product details:
- Publisher OUP USA
- Date of Publication 30 January 1992
- ISBN 9780195064650
- Binding Hardback
- No. of pages336 pages
- Size 243x166x33 mm
- Weight 649 g
- Language English
- Illustrations line drawings, tables 0
Categories
Short description:
This is an extensive survey and critical examination of the literature on the use of expert opinion in scientific inquiry and policy making. Cooke argues for the importance of developing practical models with a transparent mathematical foundation for the use of expert opinion in science, and presents three tested models. Detailed case studies illustrate how they can be applied to a diversity of real problems in engineering and planning.
MoreLong description:
This is an extensive survey and critical examination of the literature on the use of expert opinion in scientific inquiry and policy making.
Cooke considers how expert opinion is being used today, how an expert's uncertainty is or should be represented, how people do or should reason with uncertainty, how the quality and usefulness of expert opinion can be assessed, and how the views of several experts might be combined. He argues for the importance of developing practical models with a transparent mathematical foundation for the use of expert opinion in science, and presents three tested models. Detailed case studies illustrate how they can be applied to a diversity of real problems in engineering and planning.
`so clearly and meticulously presented ... a book that is so clear and honest about the limmitations of its approach, is to be warmly welcomed as a contribution to a discussion which is by no means ended.'
New Scientist
