Counterfactuals and Probability
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Product details:
- Publisher OUP Oxford
- Date of Publication 2 February 2017
- ISBN 9780198785958
- Binding Hardback
- No. of pages248 pages
- Size 223x152x19 mm
- Weight 424 g
- Language English 0
Categories
Short description:
This volume explores counterfactual thought and language. We can typically evaluate counterfactual questions probabilistically, predicting what would be likely or unlikely to happen. Schulz describes these probabilistic ways of evaluating counterfactual questions and turns the data into a novel account of the workings of counterfactual thought.
MoreLong description:
Moritz Schulz explores counterfactual thought and language: what would have happened if things had gone a different way. Counterfactual questions may concern large scale derivations (what would have happened if Nixon had launched a nuclear attack) or small scale evaluations of minor derivations (what would have happened if I had decided to join a different profession). A common impression, which receives a thorough defence in the book, is that oftentimes we find it impossible to know what would have happened. However, this does not mean that we are completely at a loss: we are typically capable of evaluating counterfactual questions probabilistically: we can say what would have been likely or unlikely to happen.
Schulz describes these probabilistic ways of evaluating counterfactual questions and turns the data into a novel account of the workings of counterfactual thought.
This is an exciting investigation of the semantics of counterfactuals that I highly recommend to both experts and people who want to catch up with recent results in the literature. It addresses both epistemic and metaphysical aspects of counterfactuals, and develops a novel refinement of the standard semantics. ... a well written and original study that merits reading from various perspectives.
Table of Contents:
Introduction
The Problem of Evaluating Counterfactuals
Counterfactual Chances
A Puzzle About Counterfactuals
Restriction and Modification
Counterfactuals and Arbitrariness
Applications
Triviality
Concluding Remarks