China
The Bubble that Never Pops
Publisher: OUP USA
Date of Publication: 24 September 2020
Normal price:
Publisher's listprice:
GBP 25.99
GBP 25.99
Your price:
11 297 (10 760 HUF + 5% VAT )
discount is: 10% (approx 1 255 HUF off)
The discount is only available for 'Alert of Favourite Topics' newsletter recipients.
Click here to subscribe.
Click here to subscribe.
Availability:
Estimated delivery time: In stock at the publisher, but not at Prospero's office. Delivery time approx. 3-5 weeks.
Not in stock at Prospero.
Can't you provide more accurate information?
Not in stock at Prospero.
Product details:
| ISBN13: | 9780190877408 |
| ISBN10: | 0190877405 |
| Binding: | Hardback |
| No. of pages: | 240 pages |
| Size: | 163x239x22 mm |
| Language: | English |
| 448 |
Category:
Short description:
A provocative perspective on the fragile fundamentals, and forces for resilience, in the Chinese economy, and a forecast for the future on alternate scenarios of collapse and ascendance.
Long description:
The Chinese economy appears destined for failure, the financial bubble forever in peril of popping, the real estate sector doomed to collapse, the factories fated for bankruptcy. A banking system more than twice the size of the U.S. and an economy still a third smaller. A looming trade war with the United States that threatens to lock its factories out of the world's biggest market. An urban landscape littered with ghost towns of empty property. An industrial sector strewn with state-owned zombie firms. A two-hundred million strong migrant workforce treated as second-class citizens in the cities where they live and work.
And yet, against the odds and against expectations, growth continues, wealth rises, global influence expands. The coming collapse of China is always coming, never arriving.
Tom Orlik, a veteran of more than a decade on the ground in Beijing and Shanghai, turns the spotlight on China's fragile fundamentals, and resources for resilience. Drawing on discussions with the Communist cadres planning China's rise, the bankers providing the financing, and the laborers sweating the construction sites, Orlik pieces together a unique perspective on China's past, present, and possible futures.
From Deng Xiaoping's reform and opening to Xi Jinping's anti-corruption crackdown, Orlik traces the policy steps and missteps that have taken China to the brink of a "Lehman moment" credit crisis. From corporate balance sheets to the stories of shadow bankers, he plumbs the depths of financial risks. From Japan in 1989, to Korea in 1997, the U.S. in 2007, and Greece in 2010, he positions China in the context of a rolling series of global crisis.
Mapping out possible scenarios, Orlik enhances our understanding of the economic and financial dynamics and what will happens if the bubble that never bursts finally does. While the magnitude of the shock that would deliver to China and the world would be tremendous, perhaps even more destabilizing is if China defies the doubters by continuing to rise.
Orlik's counterintuitive perspective offers much for economists to contemplate in their attempts to prognosticate the future of the Chinese economy.
And yet, against the odds and against expectations, growth continues, wealth rises, global influence expands. The coming collapse of China is always coming, never arriving.
Tom Orlik, a veteran of more than a decade on the ground in Beijing and Shanghai, turns the spotlight on China's fragile fundamentals, and resources for resilience. Drawing on discussions with the Communist cadres planning China's rise, the bankers providing the financing, and the laborers sweating the construction sites, Orlik pieces together a unique perspective on China's past, present, and possible futures.
From Deng Xiaoping's reform and opening to Xi Jinping's anti-corruption crackdown, Orlik traces the policy steps and missteps that have taken China to the brink of a "Lehman moment" credit crisis. From corporate balance sheets to the stories of shadow bankers, he plumbs the depths of financial risks. From Japan in 1989, to Korea in 1997, the U.S. in 2007, and Greece in 2010, he positions China in the context of a rolling series of global crisis.
Mapping out possible scenarios, Orlik enhances our understanding of the economic and financial dynamics and what will happens if the bubble that never bursts finally does. While the magnitude of the shock that would deliver to China and the world would be tremendous, perhaps even more destabilizing is if China defies the doubters by continuing to rise.
Orlik's counterintuitive perspective offers much for economists to contemplate in their attempts to prognosticate the future of the Chinese economy.
Table of Contents:
Chapter 1 - China's Debt Mountain
Chapter 2 - How Did We Get Here?
Chapter 3 - Blast Radius: the World
Chapter 4 - The End is Not Nigh
Chapter 5 - In the Long Run
Chapter 2 - How Did We Get Here?
Chapter 3 - Blast Radius: the World
Chapter 4 - The End is Not Nigh
Chapter 5 - In the Long Run
