Short description:

This book inquires into the use of prediction at the intersection of politics and academia, and reflects upon the implications of future-oriented policymaking across different fields.

Long description:

This book inquires into the use of prediction at the intersection of politics and academia, and reflects upon the implications of future-oriented policy-making across different fields.

The volume focuses on the key intricacies and fallacies of prevision in a time of complexity, uncertainty, and unpredictability. The first part of the book discusses different academic perspectives and contributions to future-oriented policy-making. The second part discusses the role of future knowledge in decision-making across different empirical issues such as climate, health, finance, bio- and nuclear weapons, civil war, and crime. It analyses how prediction is integrated into public policy and governance, and how in return governance structures influence the making of knowledge about the future. Contributors integrate two analytical dimensions in their chapters: the epistemology of prevision and the political and ethical implications of prevision. In this way, the volume contributes to a better understanding of the complex interaction and feedback loops between the processes of creating knowledge about the future and the application of this future knowledge in public policy and governance.

This book will be of much interest to students of security studies, political science, sociology, technology studies, and International Relations.

The Open Access version of this book, available at https://www.routledge.com/The-Politics-and-Science-of-Prevision-Governing-and-Probing/Wenger-Jasper-Cavelty/p/book/9780367900748, has been made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives 4.0 license.

Table of Contents:

Part I: Introduction  1. Governing and Probing the Future: The Politics and Science of Prevision Andreas Wenger, Ursula Jasper, Myriam Dunn Cavelty  Part II: Academic Perspectives on Future-Oriented Policy-Making  2. Imagined Worlds: The Politics of Future-Making in the 21^st Century Sheila Jasanoff  3. How to Know the Future ? and the Past (and How Not): A Pragmatist Perspective on Foresight and Hindsight Gunther Hellmann  4. Future Thinking and Cognitive Distortions: Key Questions that Guide Forecasting Processes Michael C. Horowitz  5. Thinking Historically: A Guide for Policy Francis J. Gavin  6. From Predicting to Forecasting: Uncertainties, Scenarios and their (Un-)Intended Side Effects Myriam Dunn Cavelty  Part III: Empirical Perspectives across Policy Fields  7. Uncertainty and Precariousness at the Policy-Science Interface: Three Cases of Climate-Driven Adaptation Maria Carmen Lemos, Nicole Klenk  8. The Anticipative Medicalization of Life: Governing Future Risk and Uncertainty in (Global) Health Ursula Jasper  9. Crisis, What Crisis? Uncertainty, Risk, and Financial Markets Peter J. Katzenstein, Stephen C. Nelson  10. Imagining Future Biothreats: The Role of Popular Culture Filippa Lentzos, Jean-Baptiste Gouyon, Brian Balmer  11. Forecasting Civil War and Political Violence Corinne Bara  12. Predicting Nuclear Weapons Proliferation Jonas Schneider  13. ?We Do that Once per Day?: Cyclical Futures and Institutional Ponderousness in Predictive Policing Matthias Leese  Part IV: Conclusion  14. The Politics and Science of the Future: Assembling Future Knowledge and Integrating It into Public Policy and Governance  Andreas Wenger, Myriam Dunn Cavelty, Ursula Jasper