Taking Chances
Winning with Probability
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Product details:
- Publisher OUP Oxford
- Date of Publication 8 May 2003
- ISBN 9780198526636
- Binding Paperback
- No. of pages388 pages
- Size 196x129x22 mm
- Weight 415 g
- Language English
- Illustrations Numerous figures and tables 0
Categories
Short description:
What are the odds against winning the Lottery, making money in a casino, or backing the right horse? Every day, people make judgements on these matters and face other decisions that rest on their understanding of probability: buying insurance, following medical advice, carrying an umbrella. Yet many of us have a frightening ignorance of how probability works. Taking Chances presents an entertaining and fascinating exploration of probability, revealing traps and fallacies in the field. It describes and analyses a remarkable variety of situations where chance plays a role, including football pools, the Lottery, TV games, sport, cards, roulette, coins, and dice. This new edition has been fully updated, and includes information on "Who Wants to be a Millionaire?" and "The Weakest Link", plus a new chapter on Probability for Lawyers.
MoreLong description:
What are the odds against winning the Lottery, making money in a casino, or backing the right horse? Every day, people make judgements on these matters and face other decisions that rest on their understanding of probability: buying insurance, following medical advice, carrying an umbrella. Yet many of us have a frightening ignorance of how probability works. Taking Chances presents an entertaining and fascinating exploration of probability, revealing traps and fallacies in the field. It describes and analyses a remarkable variety of situations where chance plays a role, including football pools, the Lottery, TV games, sport, cards, roulette, coins, and dice. The book guides the reader round common pitfalls, demonstrates how to make better informed decisions, and shows where the odds can be unexpectedly in your favour. This new edition has been fully updated, and includes information on "Who Wants to be a Millionaire?" and "The Weakest Link", plus a new chapter on Probability for Lawyers.
Review from previous edition 'the volume is ideally suited for readers with virtually no training in mathematics, but who are curious about how actually to assess the odds of things like winning a single game at lawn tennis or on which hands in poker one should raise . . . This is a book to ponder, savour, study - and give to your mathematically illiterate friends'
Table of Contents:
What is probability?
Lotteries
Football Pools, Premium Bonds
One coin, many games
Dice
Games with few choices
Waiting, waiting, waiting
Let's play best of three
TV games
Casino games
Bookies, the Tote, spread betting
This sporting life
Lucky for some--miscellenea
Probability for lawyers
Appendix I: Counting
Appendix II: Probability
Appendix III: Averages and variability
Appendix IV: Goodness-of-fit tests
Appendix V: The Kelly strategy
Solutions to Test Yourself quizzes
Literature cited
Index
